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Chapter Outline
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Chapter 27:
The Future of the Biosphere
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27.0 Introduction
- Humanity Versus the Earth
- Effects of Human Population Visible at Great Distance fig 27.1
- Population Impacts the Environment
- Total population of the earth in 1995 reached 5.7 billion
- More people consume more food, water, energy and raw materials
- More people create greater amount of waste
27.1 The world's human population is growing explosively
- A Growing Population
- The Present Situation
- World population is nearly 6 billion fig 27.2
- Global birth rate for last 300 years: 30 per year per 1000 people
- Present rate decreased slightly to 25 per 1000
- Decreased death rate from 29 to 13 per 1000 people per year
- Net increase in annual population rate
- Population increasing at rate of 1.6% per year
- Will double population in 43 years
- Annual increase of 100 million per year
- United Nation estimates population of 6 billion by 2000 AD
- Expected stabilization at 8.5 to 18 billion by 2090
- The Future Situation
- Localization of human populations in year 2000
- 60% in tropical or subtropical regions
- 20% in China
- 20% in developed or industrialized nations
- Rate of growth
- Industrialized countries at 0.3% per year
- Developing countries (excluding China) at 2.2% annually
- Variable world age structure affects population growth
- Industrialized nations: 20% of population under 15 years fig 27.3
- Developing countries have nearly twice as many
- Populations of developing countries will continue to grow faster fig 27.4
- Industrialized nations will constitute smaller portion of the global population
- Population Growth Rate Starting to Decline
- Estimates of population in 1995 less than expected
- Growth rate predicted to be 1.57% per year
- Actual growth at 1.48%
- Average number of children per woman 2.96 not expected 3.1
- U.N. attributes decline to family planning efforts, increased status of women
- Substantial monies spent on family planning
- Opposition would rather spend it on education, improving economy
- U.N. reports an increase in education levels after reduction in family size
- Countries progressing to slow their growth rates
- Population may stabilize sometime in the next century
- Quality of life dependent on stabilizing world's population
27.2 Improvements in agriculture are needed to feed a hungry world
- The Future of Agriculture
- Immediate World Challenge to Produce More Food
- Food production increased by 2.6 times since 1950
- Expanded at greater rate than population
- Most cultivatable land already in use
- Topsoil lost from agricultural land
- Prospects for increased agricultural productivity
- Finding New Food Plants
- Major crops have been cultivated for thousands of years
- Half of all human energy requirements fulfilled by rice, wheat, corn
- 100 kinds of plants provide over 90% of calories
- Need to explore properties of plants among 250,000 known species fig 27.5
- Identify new crops, especially in tropics
- Few new plants cultivated since 1800
- Examples: Rubber and oil palms
- Crops selected for ease of growth
- Improving the Productivity of Today's Crops
- Improvement needed in tropical and subtropical regions
- People cannot be fed on exports from industrial nations
- Industrial nations contribute 8% of own production
- Improvement of strains via Green Revolution: 1950-1970
- Ten-fold increase in Mexican wheat production
- Food production in India outpaced population growth
- China became self-sufficient in food production
- Limitations of Green Revolution
- Agricultural techniques require great energy output
- Extensive use of costly pesticides and herbicides
- U.S. wheat production requires 1000 times more energy than farming in India
- Present solutions
- Improve production of current crops
- Fully apply traditional means of plant breeding and selection fig 27.5
- Develop new crops in tropics and subtropics
- Development of "super rice" in Philippines
- Genetic Engineering to Improve Crops
- Resistance to specific herbicides results in better weed control
- Tolerance to soil conditions and mineral toxicity
- Ability to fix nitrogen
- New Approaches to Cultivation
- "No-till" agriculture conserves topsoil
- Use of hydroponic agriculture problematic
- Resources of oceans are not inexhaustible
- Reduce over fishing of specific areas
- Develop new microorganism-based foods: Spirulina
27.3 Human activity is placing the environment under increasing stress
- Nuclear Power
- Chernobyl Incident
- One of four reactors exploded in April 1986
- Emergency safety systems shut off
- Power surge precipitated the explosion
- Released over 100 megatons of radioactivity
- Millions of times greater than Three Mile Island
- Significant human exposure to radiation
- Death due to radiation poisoning
- The Promise of Nuclear Power
- Fossil fuels no longer cheap sources of energy
- Nuclear power could provide new source
- Undesirable side effects to burning fossil fuels
- Produces sulfur, principal cause of acid rain
- Produces carbon dioxide, primary greenhouse gas
- New problems associated with nuclear power
- Safe operation of power plants
- Disposal of radioactive wastes and safe decommission of power plants
- Prevention of terrorism and sabotage
- Important to develop other alternative energy sources
- Includes solar and wind energy
- Improve efficiency of electrical appliances
- Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming
- Changing Concentrations of Gases in Atmosphere
- CO2 maintains world temperature 25º higher than without it
- Traps heat-producing infrared light
- Creates greenhouse effect fig 27.6
- Associated with increased energy use
- Most gas from burning of fossil fuels
- Burning of forests also increases atmospheric gas
- Global warming results from increased CO2
- Mean global temperature increased 1ø since 1900
- Level of CO2 could double by 2035
- Warming exacerbated by trace gases
- Include nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons
- Effects similar to CO2
- Ancillary problems
- Rising sea levels
- Leads to global climate changes, shift of desert and agricultural regions
- Pollution
- Rhine River as an Example
- Fire in chemical warehouse washed chemicals into river
- Deadly mercury and pesticides killed fish and plants
- Water became unsafe to drink
- River slowly cleaned itself
- The Threat of Pollution
- Results from industrial byproducts
- Plastics cannot decompose
- Efforts being made to develop new microorganisms yet unsuccessful
- Agricultural pollution
- Widespread use of pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers
- Toxic chemicals remain in ecosystems
- Chlorinated hydrocarbons banned in U.S.
- Biological magnification: Toxins concentrate in the food chain fig 27.7
- Acid Precipitation
- Mechanism for Production of Atmospheric Acids
- Sulfur compounds produced when coal burned fig 27.8
- Effects seen far from where acids are produced
- Mixes with atmospheric water to produce sulfuric acid
- Acid dispersed by winds high up in atmosphere
- Biological Consequences
- Death of thousands of fresh water lakes fig 27.9
- pH below 5.0 is usually life-threatening
- Seepage into groundwater
- Destruction of forests fig 27.10
- Expensive to capture and remove emissions
- Polluter and recipient far apart
- Neither wants to pay for problems
- Success of Clean Air Act in U.S.
- The Ozone Hole
- Visible to Electronic Equipment Over Antarctica fig 27.11
- Hole is nearly the size of the U.S.
- Thinning of ozone layer first appeared in 1975
- Presence of hole coincides with Antarctic spring
- Cause of ozone hole attributed to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
- Chemicals used in cooling, fire extinguishers and styrofoam
- CFCs reduce O3 ozone molecule to O2 gas
- Global agreements to halt CFC production
- Problem will get worse before it gets better
- Quantity currently in lower atmosphere will reach upper atmosphere in later years
- Biological consequences
- Increased ultraviolet light penetration
- Increases incidence of human skin cancers
- Destruction of the Tropical Forests
- Rainforests Are Rapidly Disappearing
- Rainforests are biologically richest biomes
- Other forests with better soils destroyed for agriculture long ago
- Rainforests now destroyed even though soils are poor
- Undisturbed rainforests occupy only 5.5 million square kilometers
- Area about two-thirds the size of U.S. (Without Alaska)
- Represents half the original size of the rainforests
- 160,000 square kilometers clear cut each year
- Additional loss due to shifting cultivation, gathering firewood, cattle ranching
- Equal to the size of Indiana per year
- At the present rate they will be gone in thirty years
- A Serious Matter
- Loss of biodiversity
- Damage to complex, productive ecosystem
- Need to change from one-use to continuous agriculture fig 27.12
- Natural resources not available for use again
- Biologists must learn more to sustain agriculture in tropical regions
27.4 Solving environmental problems requires individual involvement
- Environmental Science
- Attempts to Find Solutions to Environmental Problems
- Studied by environmental scientists
- Applied science associated with ecology, geology, meteorology, social sciences
- Solving Environmental Problems
- Assessment
- Gathering information
- Construct model of situation
- Use model to predict future events
- Risk analysis
- Analyze environmental impact
- Evaluate potential for solving problem
- Determine adverse effects of solution
- Public education
- Address problem in terms the public can understand
- Present alternative actions
- Explain costs and results of various choices
- Political action
- Choice made through elected officials
- Difficult to implement if multinational problems
- Follow-through
- Monitor results of environmental actions
- Evaluate and improve initial analysis and modeling
- Individuals Can Make the Difference
- The Nashua River
- New England river severely polluted by mills
- Declared ecologically dead in 1960s
- Stoddart approached state to set apart a greenway along river, rejected
- Formed Nashua River Cleanup Committee
- Led, in part, to Massachusetts Clean Water Act of 1966
- Industrial dumping banned, river recovering
- Lake Washington
- Freshwater lake east of Seattle
- Sewage discharged into lake in 1940-1950s
- Effluent though to be harmless,
- Actually fertilized lake, promoted growth of blue-green algae
- Algae expected to deplete deep lake's oxygen supply, kill lake
- Sewage rerouted to dumping in sea
- Lake now clean
- Preserving Nonreplaceable Resources
- Destruction of Nonreplaceable Resources in U.S.
- Topsoil
- Groundwater
- Biodiversity
- Topsoil
- U.S. Is among most productive agricultural regions due to fertile soils
- Much of Midwest was once extensive prairie
- Substantial topsoil accumulated over countless generations
- Rich soit once extended down several feet
- Lost at a rate of several centimeters per decade
- Loss through repeated tilling of soil to eliminate weeds
- Rain washes away more of topsoil
- Utilize new approaches to reduce intensive cultivation
- Genetically engineer crops resistant to weed-killing herbicides
- Terrace areas via contour farming to recapture topsoil fig 27.13
- Groundwater
- Groundwater is water trapped within porous rock, in aquifers
- Originated from seepage of glaciers during last ice age
- Large portion of water wasted for non-productive activities
- Great deal also polluted by poor disposal of chemical wastes
- The Loss of Biodiversity
- Serious and rapidly accelerating problem
- Loss of species of known plants and animals
- Loss of habitat, especially in tropics
- Calculate loss of 20% of biodiversity within in next 30 years
- Loss greater considering only 15% of world's eukaryotic organisms have been named
- Why Preserve Biodiversity?
- Loss important on moral, ethical and aesthetic grounds
- Organisms necessary to sustain our own existence fig 27.14
- Also lose potential benefits of these organisms
- Opportunity to study them lost
- Upset balance of living communities and their physical environment
- Effect soils, water regulation, nutrient cycles, atmosphere, absorb pollution
- Creating conditions of instability and nonproductivity
- Ecological Reserves
- New discipline of conservation biology
- Better understanding of causes of extinction
- Better management of habitats and ecosystems
- Creation of megareserves in tropics
- Isolated patches lose species more rapidly than large areas
- Preserve reserve and still allow local land use
- No activity in core region, nondestructive use of remainder
- Pioneering efforts in Costa Rica