August, 1999
In October 1999, the world's population reached 6 billion. The largest single contributor to population growth is India, which is on track to become the world's most populous country.
During the month of August 1999, India's 1 billionth resident was born, one of 2 milion babies born in India that month. Although China, with 1.27 billion people, has long been recognized as the world's most populous country, India is gaining on China. Within 45 years, at current growth rates, India will surpass China as the world's largest population.
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Large families are still important in many poor countries, contributing to rapid population growth. |
India's growth has been rapid, resulting from longer life expectancy and lower infant mortality in recent decades. In the half century since India gained independence from Great Britain in 1947, the average life expectancy has risen from just 39 years to 63 years, as high as that in Russia today. Family sizes have also fallen sharply: in 1947 the average couple had six children, while today the average couple has only three. The large population has substantial momentum despite falling birth rates, though. In the same half century the country's population has nearly tripled, from 345 million to 1 billion. In 15 years India's population will exceed those of all developed countries combined, according to the United Nations Population Division. Currently India contributes 21% of the world's annual population increase, while China contributes 16%.
Part of the reason India is gaining on China is that China has had very severe family planning laws, enforcing a one-child-per-family policy on most of the population. This policy was adopted because Chinese leaders anticipated that traditional large families would quickly overtax the country's resources. While India has tried many approaches to limiting family sizes, this democratically governed country has not enforced strict limits as China has. Family planning has proceeded chiefly through education and health programs, which are effective but which break down traditions slowly. Also obstructing efforts to reduce family sizes are real economic needs of peasant families that lack education but can can put young children to work, thus raising meagre family incomes.
Notably family size reduction has been most effective in the southern states of India, especially Kerala, where female literacy is almost as high as male literacy, where women have relatively high social status, and where large numbers of women are able to find employment outside the home. Presumably women who are educated and employable are more able and willing to postpone childbirth or to choose a smaller family. Birth rates remain highest in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where poverty remains extreme and education for girls is relatively limited.
To read more, see
Environmental Science, A Global Concern,
Cunningham and Saigo, 5th ed.
Human populations: p. 133-55
Populations in developed versus developing countries: p. 12-14
Family planning: 150-54
Environmental Science, a Study of Interrelationships, Enger and Smith, 7th ed.
Government policy and population control: p. 112
Human population issues: p. 105
Causes of population growth: p. 107
For further information, see these related web sites:
International Planned Parenthood update on India
Overpopulation alert: Ecofuture.org
Worldwatch organization reports on populations
World PopClock, World Census Bureau
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