Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

PART I.  PERSPECTIVE AND PROCESS

1. LEARNING IN AND ABOUT COMPLEX SYSTEMS
2. SYSTEM DYNAMICS IN ACTION
3. THE MODELING PROCESS
4. STRUCTURE AND BEHAVIOR OF DYNAMIC SYSTEMS

PART II.  TOOLS FOR SYSTEMS THINKING

5. CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS
6. STOCKS AND FLOWS
7. DYNAMICS OF STOCKS AND FLOWS
8. CLOSING THE LOOP:  DYNAMICS OF SIMPLE STRUCTURES

PART III.  THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH

9. S-SHAPED GROWTH:
    EPIDEMICS, INNOVATION DIFFUSION, AND THE GROWTH OF NEW PRODUCTS
10. PATH DEPENDENCE AND POSITIVE FEEDBACK

PART IV.  TOOLS FOR MODELING DYNAMIC SYSTEMS

11. DELAYS
12. CO-FLOWS AND AGING CHAINS
13. MODELING HUMAN BEHAVIOR:
BOUNDED RATIONALITY OR RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
14. FORECASTS AND FUDGE FACTORS: MODELING EXPECTATION FORMATION

PART V.  INSTABILITY AND OSCILLATION

15. SUPPLY CHAINS AND THE ORIGIN OF OSCILLATIONS
16. MANAGING SUPPLY CHAINS IN MANUFACTURING
17. THE LABOR SUPPLY CHAIN AND THE ORIGIN OF BUSINESS CYCLES
18. THE INVISIBLE HAND SOMETIMES SHAKES: COMMODITY CYCLES VALIDATION AND MODEL TESTING

APPENDIX A:  NUMERICAL INTEGRATION

APPENDIX B:  NOISE

REFERENCES

INDEX