Conclusion

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1998 Election Supplement by Richard Semiatin

Conclusion - Election Supplement

Implications for the 106th Congress (1999-2000)

The results of the 1998 midterm elections represented an affirmation of the continuation of divided party government for at least one more election. Most often, pragmatic politicians prevailed over more ideological candidates in close races. Unlike the 1994 midterm election, when many social and economic conservatives were elected, the 1998 midterm election was a thrust back to the political center. The Republican "Contract With America" of 1994 which had so united House Republicans, was now part of political history. Today, the new Republican leadership will have the task of developing a new agenda under greater constraints. Republicans now have a razor-thin majority of six seats to control power in the House of Representatives. The electoral repercussions for the House were far greater than in the Senate where neither party gained seats.

The balance of power in the House now resides with the moderate Republicans who constitute 30-40 members of the majority. Moderates such as Michael Castle of Delaware, Jim Ramstad of Minnesota, Rick Lazio of New York and Ben Gilman of New York are going to have a lot more influence over housing, foreign, social and environmental legislation, if Republicans want to pass laws. This will almost certainly increase the split between the Republican moderates and social conservatives in the House. Republicans do seem united on reducing taxes but on virtually every other issue there is some division. This will make managing the House a more difficult task for the new Speaker and his leadership team.

Reactions to the Clinton/Lewinsky matter may have thwarted not only the impeachment process but continual investigations into the Clinton administration. Another investigation into campaign finance by an Independent Counsel might try the patience of voters again and many congressional Republicans, particularly Senators, were lukewarm about more investigations given the reaction of voters in 1998.

The agenda for the next session of Congress is likely to be Social Security reform, tax cuts, health care reform and campaign finance reform. The Social Security system is scheduled to start running out of money in the year 2012. There are suggestions about raising the retirement age, increasing Social Security taxes and, even privatizing at least part of the retirement benefits package for future generations. There are also proposals to cut income tax rates and the capital gains tax rate or even to replace the income tax with a national sales tax. Health care reform will take the shape of a patient's bill of rights to select one's own physician in health maintenance organizations (HMO's). The Republican plan covers federal government workers. The Democratic plan covers all workers, private or public, whose health coverage is provided by an HMO. Finally, it is likely that campaign finance reform will pass in the United States House, as it did last year, but not in the Senate. There are too few Senators to cut off unlimited debate which means that campaign finance reform is unlikely to pass in the next session of Congress.

Given the lame duck status of the President, a weak governing majority in the House and a cautious Senate, it will be very difficult to pass substantive legislation in the next two years. Both parties will want to take credit for resolving the impending Social Security crisis. With close to 30 percent of the voters in the country over the age of 60, Democrats and Republicans will proceed with great caution knowing that seniors vote at a higher rate than any other age group. Whether they are willing to compromise and share credit is another question. Cooperation will only take place if it is in the self-interest of the President and Republican leaders of Congress. That is how politics really works.

Who Will Be the Next President?

As of November 4, 1998, the day after the midterm elections, the next presidential election cycle started. The most important factor between now and the next presidential election is whether the economy slumps. If there is an economic downturn, the Republican nominee will likely be favored. If the economy keeps humming along, then the likely Democratic nominee, Vice-President Gore will have the advantage.

Republicans: There are two tiers of Republicans competing for the Republican nomination in the year 2000. The top tier are those Republicans capable of raising the $20 plus million by January 1, 2000 to be competitive in- the primaries. The first presidential primary is money If you do not have sufficient funds to create a large organization and buy the necessary television time to raise your credibility as a candidate, then you will be non-competitive, The top tier consists of Governor George Bush, Jr. of Texas, former Vice-President Dan Quayle, businessman Steve Forbes, former Housing and Urban Delopment Secretary, Jack Kemp; and,. (if he decides to run) former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich. The most competitive second tier candidates will be: Senator John Ashcroft of Missouri, commentator Pat Buchanan, farmer Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander and conservative activist Gary Bauer. Currently, Bush has an enormous lead in most pre-primary polls.

Democrats: The top tier of Democratic contenders for their party's nomination in the year 2000 includes: Vice-President Al Gore, House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, Reverend Jesse Jackson and former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey. The second tier of candidates consists of Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. There are rumors that if Gepbardt thinks that Democrats have a good chance to capture the House in the year 2000, he will not run for President hoping to become Speaker of the House instead. There are also rumors that Bill Bradley might run as an Independent in the year 2000. Currently, Gore is favored especially if Gephardt opts not to run.

Conclusion

As the millennium approaches the very nature of American politics will be changing. The nation's population continues to age. Baby Boomers will soon begin retiring and constitute the largest group of senior citizens in history. The population will become more diverse and by the year 2050, a majority of Americans will be non-white. The relative decline of population in the Northeast and. Great Lake states will diminish their political power. California, Texas, Florida and some of the Western states such as Nevada, Arizona and Colorado are expected to grow in population and gain more political power, The face of America will look very different at the dawn of the next century then it looks today. One thing we can be assured of, when we talk about the United States of America, we are no longer talking about a country but a continent- creating greater unpredictability in terms of politics and elections in the years to come.

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