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American Government 4/e Thomas E. Patterson | |||||
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American Government 4/e Thomas E. Patterson | |||||
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CHAPTER OUTLINE
Introduction
Clinton in 1998 illustrates the variable nature of the modern presidency
Presidential power changes with national conditions, occupant, political circumstances
Presidential power is conditional on demand for strong leadership and support
The chapter’s main points:
Presidential influence on national policy is highly variable
Presidents will be heard, but need help of other officials to lead; to get their help, presidents must respond to officials’ own interests
Presidents have trouble maintaining high levels of public support
Factors in Presidential Leadership
Introduction
Presidents can be bold—Bush’s invasion of Panama (but this is uncommon)
Significant presidential action depends on other institutions, especially Congress
Congress backed more than 50 percent of legislation approved by president
Low point (1987)—45 percent for Reagan
Another low point (1990)—47 percent for Bush
High point (1965)—93 percent for Lyndon Johnson
Proportion of White House initiatives enacted by Congress into law
In 1993: Clinton had 88 percent success rate
Average success rate is just below 50 percent
Johnson had 69 percent in 1965
Nixon had 20 percent in 1973
Presidents have less success on ambitious proposals
The Force of Circumstance
FDR, Johnson, Reagan changes all marked by special circumstances
Decisive election victory that added force to presidential leadership
A compelling national problem existed (agreed to by Congress, public)
A president who vigorously advocated policies that met expectations
Hargrove: Presidential influence depends largely on circumstance
The Stage of the President’s Term
Honeymoon period (first months in office) more favorable to president
"Strategic presidency"—president must move quickly to profit from election
momentum (James Pfiffner)
Presidents are not as effective later in their terms
Irony of presidency: presidents most powerful when least knowledgeable
First months in office can be risky
Note JFK’s blunder at Bay of Pigs
The Foreign or Domestic Nature of the Policy Proposal
Wildavsky: Two presidencies—one domestic, one foreign
Only 40 percent congressional approval of domestic proposals by president
Compared with 70 percent of presidents’ foreign policy initiatives
Most appropriate after WWII when containment was popular
Bipartisanship eroded after the Vietnam War
Bush had trouble getting Gulf resolution approved
Today, party composition affects both types of policies
Presidents get more support from opposition party on foreign policy
GOP votes crucial to Clinton’s NAFTA and GATT agreements
Supreme Court has supported presidential power in foreign policy
Nixon’s 1972 agreement with China to renew diplomatic relations
Kennedy’s actions during the Cuban missile crisis
Presidents have intelligence agencies to support them ("presidential agencies")
State, Defense, CIA traditionally defer to presidential authority
Compare to Agriculture which is responsive to members of Congress
Congress now plays a stronger policy role due to end of cold war
President’s influence has diminished both at home and abroad (Richard Rose)
Presidential Leadership
Congressional Support
Presidents do not have automatic support for their policies
Carter never understood how the system worked (Tip O’Neill)
Carter eliminated nineteen public works projects
Created a conflict-ridden relationship with Congress
President must respond to interests of Congress
Veto: more a sign of presidential weakness than of strength
Line-item veto struck down by Supreme Court
The Power to Persuade—Neustadt and example of Truman and Marshall Plan
Truman allowed General Marshall to announce program
Truman gained support from GOP Senator Vandenberg
Partisan Support in Congress
GOP presidents have had to contend with Democratic Congress
Southern Democrats have combined with Republicans ("conservative coalition")
Clinton got deficit reduction bill due to support of 85 percent of Democrats
Colliding with Congress—Impeachment, hearing, legislation
War Powers Act curbs presidential power (1973)
Congress can terminate troops commitment after sixty days
President must consult with Congress before dispatching troops
President must inform Congress within forty-eight hours
Every president has claimed constitutional infringement
Iran-Contra—Congress stopped illegal activity
Public Support—president can claim he represents the whole American public
Presidential approval ratings drop from high point at start of administration
Only Eisenhower, JFK, Reagan left office with average above 50 percent
President’s character (Clinton), national events (Bush and economy) affect ratings
Prosperity and Popularity—economy has biggest impact on presidential approval
Affected Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush
Clinton’s generally high ratings due in part to good economy
The Public’s Response to Crises—"rally around the flag" phenomenon
Even disasters can raise support (Reagan and marines killed In Lebanon)
Carter and rescue of Iranian hostages—possibly reelected if successful
The Televised Presidency and the Illusion of Presidential Government
President has advantage of access to media, especially TV
Television makes it easier for presidents to go public with their programs
Frequently used by the "Great Communicator" Ronald Reagan
"Going public" sometimes ineffective (Clinton’s China trip)
Critics: Presidents speak out more about problems than they work to solve them
Good public relations can help president (Bush and education)
Presidents can put "spin on the news"
Press puts "negative spin" on presidents
Press charged that Clinton had reneged on campaign promises
Yet Clinton had kept many promises
"Kept promises not nearly as newsworthy as broken ones"
Scandal is the biggest threat to presidential control of news
Presidents must counter negative press coverage by stressing their accomplishments
"Illusion of presidential government"—public believes president is in charge
Presidents get too much credit when things go well, too much blame in bad times
Irony: Presidential office grows weaker as problems mount
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